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ორბანის დამარცხება: ავტორიტარიზმის დასასრულის დასაწყისი?
The Guardian 4 საათის წინ
ორბანის დამარცხება: ავტორიტარიზმის დასასრულის დასაწყისი?

For US Democrats seeking rays of light in the dark landscape of Donald Trump's authoritarian onslaught, the illumination came from an unexpected source: Budapest. Victor Orban's defeat in Hungary's general election - the end of his Fidesz party's 16 years of uninterrupted rule - carries symbolic and psychological significance for American politics, far out of proportion to the modest size and distance from the US of the Central European country. For years, Orban had been an inspiration, a beacon and a muse for US Republicans, embodying a potent mix of electoral success, increasingly authoritarian concentration of power and a populist message that combined anti-immigrant xenophobia with conservative Christian values. Orban visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago and the White House three times in 2024 and 2025, with the US president often praising the Hungarian prime minister at important forums - including in a presidential debate with Kamala Harris. Among the many things the two agreed on was their shared admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The White House's desire for Orban to remain in power was so strong that Vice-President JD Vance was sent to Hungary last week to address voters, which may have ultimately been counterproductive. Now, the proud, self-declared "illiberal" strongman is gone, felled by a growing public backlash against the mounting corruption of his rule, which eventually united liberals with conservatives and urban communities with rural ones. Also defeated is the sense of invincibility that Orban had acquired during four consecutive terms in office, as he and his allies took control of the media, courts and universities. Trump's opponents took note. Steady State, an organization of retired national security officials dedicated to fighting Trump, hailed Orban's defeat as "a significant event" that could become a US template. "Orban is not just an autocrat whose defeat demonstrates the resilience of democratic opposition; he is also directly relevant here," said Steven Cash, the group's CEO. "The message from Hungary is unequivocal: When citizens come together in large numbers, even established authoritarian leaders can be defeated. Autocrats can rise, but they are not invincible. In the end, they fall when confronted by the sustained force of democratic participation." The victory of Hungary's opposition party, Jobbik, led by Peter Akos Magyar, is particularly remarkable because it occurred against the backdrop of vicious gerrymandering that tilted the playing field in Orban's favor. Observers described Hungary's most recent elections as free but not fair. Democrats, worried by Trump's repeated hints that he will intervene in the November congressional midterms, will take encouragement from this success, said Steven Levitsky, a Harvard University professor of political science. "The election system was heavily distorted in favor of [Fidesz], but it is entirely possible, what I call competitive authoritarian regimes, for the opposition to win," Levitsky said, co-author of "How Democracies Die" with Daniel Ziblat. "For Democrats in the United States, the tendency is to be discouraged by the degree to which the government is trying to manipulate the election, perhaps by getting access to voter lists, which makes it harder to vote, perhaps by mail-in voting. These are challenges, but they in no way prevent the opposition from winning." But alongside the optimism, there are warnings, commentators caution against overdrawing parallels between the US and Hungary, a country of 10 million with a history of communist rule during the Cold War. Levitsky pointed to significant differences between Orban, a former liberal who fought against the communist regime, and Trump. "We're used to referring to Hungary as an autocracy and the US as a democracy, but there are ways in which Donald Trump is much more overtly authoritarian than Orban," he said. "Orban never lost an election. He never tried to prosecute his opponents. He was in many ways less repressive than Trump. If Democrats can take solace in the fact that despite a tilted playing field, it is still possible to win, they cannot be overly confident, because Trump is something Orban never did." This raises a troubling possibility that while Democrats seek solace, Trump may learn his own lessons - and try to become more repressive. "It's an old story," said Eric Rubin, former US ambassador to Bulgaria and a veteran diplomat in Putin's era in Moscow. "It happened with Indira Gandhi in 1977, when she lifted the state of emergency, held free and fair elections - and lost. "The authoritarian lesson is if you can avoid free elections, that's always better. That's Putin's modus operandi. He's been avoiding free elections for 27 years. That could be a sign of the US midterms." An alternative outcome of Orban's defeat is that it reminds Republicans that "even autocrats sometimes lose," Levitsky argued. "One of my biggest concerns over the past decade has been that the Republican party has been effectively forgetting how to lose. Trump has really accelerated this process, in which the Republican party has become less and less willing to legitimately accept defeat and accept its competitors as a legitimate alternative. That's incredibly dangerous for democracy. "My optimistic hope is that the acceptance of Orban's defeat could be a positive example for Republicans, that even their idol was defeated." Whatever the case, Hungary's landmark election - no matter how significant for EU harmony and for Ukraine's unrestricted support, which Orban constantly tried to block - is unlikely to be the death knell of authoritarianism. "The fact that Hungary was a beacon, makes this particular turnaround very significant," Levitsky said. "But there are many unstable political regimes around the world, including the United States, and these regimes will continue to swing back and forth. The game is not over - not in Poland, not in Hungary, not in Brazil. And not in the United States."

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